A new force and factor may be about to emerge in international affairs.

It is the European Union, an economic and political grouping of 27 member-states, which hitherto has been mainly concerned with trade and regional matters.

Two new developments may be about to trigger a more active international role for this coalition. One is Ireland's Oct. 2 ratification of the Lisbon treaty, which empowers and legitimizes the EU in new ways. The second is the treaty's creation of a permanent presidency, the likely incumbent of which is said to be former British Prime Minister Tony Blair. Although several other lesser-known candidates have been mentioned, Blair is the odds-on favorite. He has recently been the special envoy to the Middle East of the "quartet": the EU, the U.N., the United States and Russia.

Also to be created under the new system is the office of a high foreign-policy representative, but if Blair, who has star power on the international circuit, does become president, he would surely seek himself to inject new presence and purpose for the EU on the global scene.

A Blair "brand" upon the EU would be significant because Blair is a proponent of intervention, if necessary militarily, not only when a nation's interests are directly engaged, but also where there exists a humanitarian crisis or gross oppression of a civilian population. He says that was the case in Afghanistan under Taliban rule after 9/11, since the "regime had allowed al-Qaida to operate training camps," but also because of "its cruelty, its suppression of women, its use of the drug trade." It is proving, he says, "to be a battle needing to be re-waged," despite declining public support.

NATO nations have been increasingly edgy about the current war in Afghanistan and reluctant to heed U.S. appeals for them to send more of their troops there. If Blair becomes president of the European Union, it remains to be seen whether he would choose to argue — and be successful — in persuading some of its member-states to greater economic or military effort in Afghanistan.

Blair was a sturdy supporter of the U.S. war in Iraq and continued so, even in the face of strong opposition from segments of the British electorate. His stance cost him dearly. But as he said in a speech at the time: "I do not seek unpopularity as a badge of honor. But sometimes it is the price of leadership and cost of conviction."